The Astonishing Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just two months prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

A reversion to average could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

  • The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
  • The winger may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.

James Roman
James Roman

London-based event enthusiast and writer, covering the city's vibrant culture and entertainment scene.