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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still